Rare Earths Market

Rare Earths Market

The Ex-China Supply Gap is Real — and Growing

Magnetic rare earths (NdPr, Dy, Tb) are the fundamental building blocks of the modern energy transition. While demand is accelerating across EV, wind, and AI/datacenter sectors, the global supply chain remains critically concentrated.

~98kt
Projected NdPr primary supply deficit by 2040
20–30
New ex-China mines needed to close the gap
10%
CAGR in magnet REE market value (2024–2040)
2025
126kt
91
NdPr Supply
127kt
91
NdPr Demand
259kt
Magnet Demand
2040
264kt
189
NdPr Supply
410kt
287
NdPr Demand
881kt
Magnet Demand
Primary
Recycled
Other
Robotics
EV & Gen Auto

Source: Adamas Intelligence, MP Materials Nov 2025, Select headlines, tag “Rare Earth”.

Structural Demand

What is Driving Magnet REE Demand

Electric vehicles and wind energy form the core of structural NdPr demand growth, with emerging technologies providing additional upside.

Electric Mobility

01

1.3kg / EV

Electric Mobility

NdPr is critical to high-efficiency permanent magnet motors used across modern EV platforms, making electrification the largest structural demand driver.

Wind Energy

02

240kg / MW

Wind Energy

Direct-drive offshore turbines use permanent magnet generators, requiring ~240kg of NdPr per megawatt in these configurations.

Humanoid Robotics

03

1.3kg / Unit

Humanoid Robotics

An emerging demand source. Humanoid and advanced robotics rely on precision NdFeB motors in joints and actuators, with potential to scale over time.

AI & Datacenters

04

3x by 2030

AI & Datacenters

Growth in hyperscale data centres drives incremental demand through cooling systems, power infrastructure, and storage hardware.

Where Demand Comes From Today

EVs & Mobility 35%
Industrial & Robotics 25%
Wind Energy 20%
Electronics & Data Infrastructure 12%
Defense & Aerospace 8%

Share of Global NdPr Magnet Demand

The Metals That Matter

The Four Magnet Metals That Matter

OBY's Man of War resource delivers a 23% Magnet REO (MREO) ratio — nearly a quarter of all rare earth oxide consists of the four metals that determine economic value.

Nd
Nd
594 ppm @ 1,000 ppm cutoff

Neodymium

Primary component of NdFeB permanent magnets. Highest-volume magnet REE by demand.

Pr
Pr
173 ppm @ 1,000 ppm cutoff

Praseodymium

Paired with Nd to improve corrosion resistance and mechanical stability.

Dy
Dy
22 ppm @ 1,000 ppm cutoff

Dysprosium

Critical additive for maintaining magnet coercivity at elevated temperatures.

Tb
Tb
5 ppm @ 1,000 ppm cutoff

Terbium

Reduces Dy requirements while improving magnet performance and efficiency.

Man of War Rare Earths Project

Man of War already screens differently

Scale is real today. The 2026 question is how much of that scale can be made cleaner, simpler, and more financeable.

1.35 Bt
Resource @ 1,000 ppm cutoff
3,437 ppm
TRE grade @ 1,000 ppm
372 Mt
Resource @ 4,000 ppm cutoff
5,124 ppm
TREO grade @ 4,000 ppm cutoff
23%
MREO as % of TREO
4.6 Mt
Contained TREO (1.1 Mt MREO)
Man of War Project

The Man of War Project represents a district-scale magnetic rare earth opportunity in Brazil, with a 2026 roadmap focused on advancing metallurgy, development studies, and project de-risking.